As we face uncertain times, the possibility of an impending recession is looming on the horizon. However, forecasting the market/economy during these times has become increasingly challenging. The unprecedented actions of the government have significantly distorted our economic activity, making it difficult to predict what lies ahead.

The spending and borrowing spurred by the government have temporarily masked the pain of the lockdowns. However, when this artificial stimulus wears off, we are likely to feel the full impact of a recession. Economic data from the fourth quarter of 2022 suggests this may already be underway. In November and December, we observed unusually weak economic data, while January reported robust economic growth.

“After all the economic stimulus wears off, we will have to pay the price sooner or later.”

The distortion in seasonal patterns caused by the pandemic and the government shutdowns has further complicated the economic forecast. It is best to wait for several months and analyze the data before drawing any real conclusions. There will be periods when the data shows strong growth followed by weak growth. Thus, it is crucial to wait and see what happens before making any conclusions about a recession.

It is likely that after all the economic stimulus wears off, we will have to pay the price sooner or later. The government's monetary and fiscal policies have resulted in a distorted market environment, and we have yet to see the full impact of these policies. If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to me by phone or email. I look forward to hearing from you.

The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

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