The longest-running bull market in history is officially here. How long will it continue?

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This is now the longest-running bull market in history. As of August 22, we have seen a run of 3,543 days. The next-closest was from November of 1990 to March 2000. 

How much longer will this bull market last? The truth is that I have no idea. However, I do know that bull markets do not die of old age. They die from excesses in the marketplace and economy—e.g. the tech bubble, the savings and loan crisis, and the housing crisis. 

This bull market began at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009. With government deregulation, corporate tax cuts, low inflation, and strong earnings continuing to run this market, tariffs and trade wars can bring it down, but in our opinion, we don’t believe it will amount to much. The average tariff in the U.S. is about 3.5%, while in China it is about 9.9%.

We don’t really think that we will see all-out trade wars, although that does remain a risk. If the Fed raises interest rates too quickly, that could derail the market. However, we don’t see any of that happening for the time being.

If you have any questions about this bull market or about the market in general, don’t hesitate to give me a call or send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you soon.

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